期刊论文

中文

灾害学

1000-811X

2014

29

1

52-57

10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2014.01.010

41071067:国家自然科学基金 71303251:国家自然科学基金

本校为第一机构

基于洞庭湖流域1993 - 2011年的自然、社会经济等资料系列,立足于致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性的自然属性和承灾体易损性的社会属性两方面,建立指标体系,并在此基础上,运用GIS 技术与数理统计相结合的方法,对该流域农业旱灾风险进行综合评价。结果表明: 从整体上看,长沙市和湘潭市为农业旱灾高风险区,益阳市和衡阳市为较高风险区,岳阳市、邵阳市和怀化市为中等风险区,娄底市为较低风险区,株洲市、郴州市、永州市、常德市、张家界市和湘西自治州为低风险区。孕灾环境脆弱性、致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性的差异是导致各地州市农业旱灾风险度大小的症结所在。

Using the data from 1993 to 2011 in Dongting Lake basin,the index system is constructed based on the nature attribute of the hazard danger and the hazard-formative-environment fragility,and the society attribute of the hazard-affected-bodies vulnerability. On this basis,the risk of the agricultural drought in Dongting Lake basin is assessed synthetically with a combined method of the GIS and the mathematical statistics. The results show,as a whole,the areas with the highest level of agricultural drought risk are mainly located in Changsha city and Xiangtan city,while Yiyang city and Hengyang c...