期刊论文

中文

应用昆虫学报

2095-1353

2018

55

3

415-427

10.7679/j.issn.2095-1353.2018.054

湖南省财政专项

本校为第一机构

【目的】以湖南省郴州市烟田害虫斜纹夜蛾Spodoptera litura(Fabricius)历年虫情资料为例,探讨利用异地和前一年气象因子构建其当年害虫发生动态预测模型的可行性.【方法】收集整理2000-2013年长沙、2000-2015年郴州、广州、南昌4地历史气象资料(如:温度、湿度、降雨量、日照时数等)以及2000-2015年郴州地区烟田斜纹夜蛾的历史虫情(如:成虫和幼虫的年发生量等)资料,利用SPSS软件中逐步回归分析法和卡平方分析法构建和筛选有效的多因子预测模型.【结果】利用郴州市16年斜纹夜蛾虫情资料,郴州、长沙2个不同地区对应年份的共170个气象因子,广州、南昌2个不同地区对应年份的共104个气象因子,按回归模...

[Objectives] To determine the feasibility of using meteorological factors from different sites to develop models to predict the annual population dynamics of insect pests. [Methods] Meteorological data, including temperature, humidity, rainfall and sunshine duration in Changsha from 2000 until 2013, and from Chenzhou, Guangzhou and Nanchang from 2000 until 2015, and data on the abundance of Spodoptera litura (Fabricius) in Chenzhou from 2000 until 2015, were analyzed using stepwise regression and Chi-square tests to develop effective, multivari...