期刊论文

中文

中国农学通报

1000-6850

2013

29

23

210-215

10.3969/j.issn.1000-6850.2013.23.036

国家科技支撑计划重大项目“农村物联网基础平台共性关键技术研究”（2012BAD35B05）； 湖南省研究生科研创新项目“时间序列分析方法在农业虫害预测中的应用研究”（CX2012B307）；

本校为第一机构

影响耕地面积变化的驱动因子复杂多变,难以确定。为了合理选择耕地面积的驱动因子,提高耕地面积的预测精度,指导耕地资源科学分配利用,通过采用一种基于GS-SVR自变量全组合预测均方误差（Mean Squared Error,MSE）最小原则的方法确定耕地面积的驱动因子;并以湖南省耕地面积变化为例,通过SVR-CAR、LSSVM、BPNN、ARIMA和MLRR等常用的时间序列预测方法来验证所选取驱动因子的有效性。结果表明,湖南省耕地面积变化的最优驱动因子组合为城市化水平和房地产业产值指数,且常用时间序列预测方法采用GS-SVR全组合方式选取的驱动因子组合大幅度提高了耕地面积的预测精度。采用GS-SVR自变量全组合均方误差最...

It was complicated and difficult to determine the driving factors which affect changes of cultivated land area. In order to select the effective driving factors and promote the prediction accuracy of cultivated land area, this paper proposed a method to determine the driving factors of cultivated land area relying on the minimum mean squared error (MSE) of prediction value and observed value among all combinations of independent variables based on GS-SVR. Then, taking Hunan province as a case, this paper used several time-series forecasting methods, such as SVR-CAR, LSSVM, BPNN, ARIMA and MLRR...