A novel Grey forecasting model for predicting S. sclerotiorum (Lib) de Bary disease on winter rapeseed (B. nopus) is built based on Grey GM (1,1) model. The residual error test and the posterror test methods were used for calibration of the model. Different from other conventional forecasting methods, the GM (1,1)-based Grey calamity prediction forecasts a prediction Delta T to infer the probable year of Sclerotinia disease outbreaks according to the origin, and then uses the result to recommend spraying a field or not in order to avoid unnecessary fungicide application. Based on practical exp...
