期刊论文

Wang, J.

中文

应用生态学报

1001-9332

2009

20

9

2233-2240

辽宁省博士启动基金项目（20061024）； 国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项（2009ZX07526-006-02）； 辽宁省环境遥感技术应用重点实验室开放基金项目； 辽宁省重点学科项目； 辽宁大学“211”工程重点学科项目资助；

本校为其他机构

应用系统动力学方法建立了水环境承载力模型,并结合层次分析法和向量模法,模拟了辽宁省水环境系统的动态变化,预测了2000-2050年辽宁省水环境在不同发展方案下的承载能力.结果表明:若保持现行发展方案不变,2000-2050年,辽宁省水环境承载力将呈逐年下降趋势;仅增加水资源供给、不进行科学合理的水环境保护与治理,将无法提高该区域水环境承载能力;只有将开源、节流、治污、减排等多种手段相结合,才能有效提高辽宁省水环境承载能力,促进该地区经济、社会和环境的协调发展.

By the methods of system dynamics, a water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) model was constructed, and the dynamic trend of the WECC in Liaoning Province was simulated by using this model, in combining with analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and the vector norm method. It was predicted that under the conditions of maintaining present development schemes, the WECC in this province in 2000-2050 would be decreased year after year. Only increasing water resources supply while not implementing scientific and rational management of water environment could not improve the regional WECC, and the...