期刊论文

Simulation analysis of the risk coupling features in view of the perspectives of elasticity coefficients

中文

安全与环境学报

Journal of Safety and Environment

1009-6094

2017

17

5

1686-1690

10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2017.05.012

国家自然科学基金项目(71401179)； 武警工程大学基础研究基金项目(WJY201608)；

本校为第一机构

风险耦合导致风险发生非线性演化,从而给风险的定量评估带来困难。为给出风险耦合控制的有效对策,基于弹性系数视角界定风险耦合弹性系数概念,以此实现对风险耦合强度的定量测度;基于装备研制项目设计论证环节,从风险测度指标节点裕度角度,采用Arena软件仿真分析单指标和全指标在线性和非线性耦合关系下的系统风险熵和后传风险熵的变化情况。结果表明,全指标非线性耦合会显著改变系统性能,而单指标非线性耦合和全指标线性耦合次之,欲实现风险耦合控制应极力制止全局性的非线性耦合关系。

The present article is to introduce its simulation analysis of the risk coupling features in view of the perspectives of the elasticity coefficients. As is known,risk coupling involves extremely significant liabilities that tend to lead to risk catastrophe during a risk transfer process,in which the risk coupling may precipitate a nonlinear risk evolution,thus,making the quantitative risk assessment more complicated and illogic. Therefore,in this article,we would like to illustrate necessary notions of accident systems,define the interactive fa...