Using a time series analysis metbed, tbe author forecasts tbe population of tbe Dongdng Lake area in 2010 will be 1 396. 38 × 10^4 with the paddy demand 5 002.17 ×10^3 t , and a fertilizer demand at 1 466.91× 10^3 t. In 2020 the population projection Hill be 1 492.31 × 10^4, the paddy demand 5 284.79 ×10^3 t , while the fertilizer demand quantity Hill be 1 549.79 × 10^3 t . The author set up an evaluation model of environmental costs of fertilizer on the basis of summarizing domestic and international fertilizers used and the relative env...