The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of agricultural carbon emissions on China's agricultural economic development, which is of great significance to the modernization of China's agricultural sector. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2019 to 2022, this paper selected 10 carbon emission-related indicators and comprehensively adopted a pooled regression model, a fixed effect model, and a random effect model to evaluate the impact. It also passes the Hausman test and Tobit model stability test. The results show that limiting agricultural carbon emissions in China...