期刊论文

Analysis of Fluctuation Trend of China s Pig Market under External Impact and Research on the Policy of Ensuring Supply and Stabilizing Price

中文

南方农村

1008-2697

2023

39

03

15-21

国家社科基金重点项目“三维视角下推动主产区粮食经济高质量发展的机制与政策体系研究”(20AJY012)；

本校为第一机构

文章运用VAR模型，考察2018年猪瘟疫情对生猪市场的冲击方向和强度。结果表明：外部冲击对猪肉市场价格产生负向影响，引致猪肉价格更大的波动。进一步选择ARMA模型预测2021年3月至2026年3月猪肉月度价格波动趋势，结果显示，我国猪肉市场价格将呈现周期性衰减与季节性波动演变特征，不确定性冲击下的波动可能更加显著。促进我国生猪市场保供稳价可以从鼓励消费者替代消费、加大信贷保险投入、提升国家肉制品存储能力、促进生猪产业链整合、加强疫情监管、政策宣传以及合作组织的建立等方面入手。

The article uses VAR model to investigate the impact direction and intensity of the epidemic of swine plague on the pig market in 2018;The results show that the external impact has a negative impact on the pork market price,leading to greater fluctuations in pork prices...MORE The article uses VAR model to investigate the impact direction and intensity of the epidemic of swine plague on the pig market in 2018;The results show that the external impact has a negative impact on the pork market price,leading to greater fluctuations in pork prices.Further study and select ARMA model to predict the ...