Forecasting wildfire disease on tobacco: toward developing a high-accuracy prediction model for disease index using local climate factors and support vector regression

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成果类型：

期刊论文

作者：

Cai, X. H.;Chen, T.;Wang, R. Y.;Fan, Y. J.;Li, Y.;...

通讯作者：

Zhou, W.;Zhou, Q. M.

作者机构：

[Wang, R. Y.; Fan, Y. J.; Hu, S. N.; Yuan, Z. M.; Li, Y.; Cai, X. H.; Zhou, W.] Hunan Agr Univ, Hunan Prov Engn & Technol Res Ctr Agr Big Data An, Changsha 410128, Hunan, Peoples R China.

[Wang, R. Y.; Fan, Y. J.; Hu, S. N.; Yuan, Z. M.; Li, Y.; Cai, X. H.; Zhou, W.] Hunan Agr Univ, Hunan Prov Key Lab Biol & Control Plant Dis & Ins, Changsha 410128, Hunan, Peoples R China.

[Wang, R. Y.; Fan, Y. J.; Hu, S. N.; Yuan, Z. M.; Li, Y.; Cai, X. H.; Zhou, W.] Hunan Agr Univ, Hunan Prov Engn & Technol Res Ctr Biopesticide &, Changsha 410128, Hunan, Peoples R China.

[Zhou, Q. M.; Chen, T.] Hunan Agr Univ, Coll Agr, Changsha 410128, Hunan, Peoples R China.

[Li, H. G.; Li, X. Y.] Hunan Tobacco Co, Chenzhou Co, Chenzhou 423000, Peoples R China.

通讯机构：

[Zhou, W.; Zhou, Q. M.] H

[Zhou, W.] T

Hunan Agr Univ, Hunan Prov Engn & Technol Res Ctr Agr Big Data An, Changsha 410128, Hunan, Peoples R China.

Hunan Agr Univ, Hunan Prov Key Lab Biol & Control Plant Dis & Ins, Changsha 410128, Hunan, Peoples R China.

Hunan Agr Univ, Hunan Prov Engn & Technol Res Ctr Biopesticide &, Changsha 410128, Hunan, Peoples R China.

语种：

英文

期刊：

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

ISSN：

0177-798X

年：

2019

卷：

137

期：

3-4

页码：

2139-2149

DOI：

10.1007/s00704-018-2708-x

基金类别：

China Postdoctoral Science FoundationChina Postdoctoral Science Foundation [2015T80870, 2014M562109]; China Scholarship CouncilChina Scholarship Council [201708430002]; Scientific Research Fund of Hunan Provincial Education DepartmentHunan Provincial Education Department [17C0770]

机构署名：

本校为第一且通讯机构

院系归属：

农学院

植物保护学院

摘要：

Tobacco wildfire disease is common globally, and climate change may increase the risk of outbreaks. Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish an effective climate model to forecast the occurrence of wildfire disease. To design such a model, we collected data for 40 wildfire disease indices via tobacco field surveys and data for 15 climate factors of Guiyang County in China from 2012 to 2016. First, we built multiple linear regression (MLR), stepwise linear regression (SLR) and support vector regression (SVR) models using three climate fea...

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Forecasting wildfire disease on tobacco: toward developing a high-accuracy prediction model for disease index using local climate factors and support vector regression

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