To solve the problems of pest prediction accuracy,this paper proposed a novel high precision method of pest forecasting based on integrated controlled autoregressive （ CAR） and support vector machine （ SVM） . Firstly,determined the model order by leave-one-out method based on the minimum mean square error with SVM,secondly,screenning the better variable and the order of reserved variable screened compulsorily with SVM,lastly,built model with the reserved variable based on SVM. The prediction results of the two samples set,which are moth-eat...
